New Dengue fever predictor developed

A new model has been created to predict outbreaks of Dengue fever using climate and vegetation indices.

Researchers have developed the world's first climate-based model for forecasting the disease at the University of Miami (UM) and the University of Costa Rica.

The new model is claimed to be 83 per cent accurate up to 40 weeks before an outbreak begins and has already predicted an outbreak that occurred in 2005.

Douglas O Fuller, principal investigator and professor at the UM College of Arts and Sciences, said that he was surprised how closely related temperature variations were to the outbreak of Dengue fever.

"Such a tool will provide sufficient time for public health authorities to mobilise resources to step up vector control measures, alert at-risk populations to impending conditions and help health professionals plan for increased case loads," he stated.

There are between 50 and 100 million cases of Dengue fever each year, with the Tropics particularly vulnerable to the disease.

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